{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk/decide/hurdle@1.5","title":"Set the hurdle rate","summary":"Send the long-bond yield and two or three asset betas; get r for this business — its cost of capital, the discount rate — with the sub-$5M probability rule and the concentrated owner's stated premium applied.","url":"https://business-frameworks.matryoshka-paradigms.workers.dev/apply/risk/decide/hurdle","method":"POST","price_usd":"$0.05","node_url":"https://business-frameworks.matryoshka-paradigms.workers.dev/node/risk/decide/hurdle","input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"long_bond_yield_pct":{"type":"number","description":"Current yield on a long government bond, in percent. The caller's figure: look it up on the day and name the source; the endpoint fetches nothing."},"asset_betas":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"number"},"minItems":1,"description":"Asset betas of two or three comparable companies: each company's beta with the effect of its debt stripped out. The caller's figures, from a named source."},"market_premium_pct":{"type":"number","default":6,"description":"The market premium, in percentage points. Default 6: the node works with roughly six as a rule of thumb, which is not a current market reading; send your own figure if you hold one."},"personal_premium_pct":{"type":"number","default":0,"description":"Extra return, in percentage points, that an owner concentrated in this one business states on top of the market-based rate. Default 0. Stated by the owner, never hidden."},"revenue_usd":{"type":"number","description":"Annual revenue in US dollars (convert if the books are kept in another currency). Below 5,000,000 the probability of the plan goes into the cash flows, not into the rate."},"plan_probability":{"type":"number","minimum":0,"maximum":1,"description":"Chance, from 0 to 1, that the plan works. Used when revenue_usd is below 5,000,000."}},"required":["long_bond_yield_pct","asset_betas"],"description":"Fields ending _pct take a number of percent (13 means 13%, not 0.13). Fields ending _per_sales_dollar are fractions of a sales dollar (0.65 means 65 cents), and probabilities run from 0 to 1. Money is a plain number in one currency for the whole call; revenue_usd alone is in US dollars, because the scale bands are set in US dollars."},"example_input":{"long_bond_yield_pct":4,"asset_betas":[1.4,1.6],"market_premium_pct":6,"personal_premium_pct":2,"revenue_usd":3000000,"plan_probability":0.7},"how":"POST this URL with a JSON body matching input_schema; on 402, sign and retry with PAYMENT-SIGNATURE","units":"Fields ending _pct take a number of percent (13 means 13%, not 0.13). Fields ending _per_sales_dollar are fractions of a sales dollar (0.65 means 65 cents), and probabilities run from 0 to 1. Money is a plain number in one currency for the whole call; revenue_usd alone is in US dollars, because the scale bands are set in US dollars.","notes":["Deterministic: the result is computed from these inputs by a fixed rule. No model is involved and nothing is looked up.","Nothing is looked up for the caller. Where a field says the figure is the caller's, take it from the business or from a named source and say which; do not present your own estimate as the framework's."],"related":[{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk@1.5","rel":"term","when":"the free node above this decision; read it first","price_usd":"$0"},{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk/why@1.5","rel":"why","when":"the reasoning behind the rule is wanted, not only its result","price_usd":"$0.02"},{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk/band/sub-5m@1.5","rel":"scale band","when":"revenue is under $5M","price_usd":"$0.03"},{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk/band/5-50m@1.5","rel":"scale band","when":"revenue is $5M or more","price_usd":"$0.03"},{"handle":"business-frameworks/risk/decide/concentration@1.5","rel":"decision","when":"the owner depends on one customer, one supplier or their own presence","price_usd":"$0.05"}],"related_how":"To read a related node, GET /node/<path> on this host, where <path> is the handle without the product name and the version; a paid node answers 402 with its price first.","cite_as":"McHenry, J. (2026). Business Frameworks, version 1.5, business-frameworks/risk/decide/hurdle@1.5.","fit":{"pilot":true,"measured_on":"2026-10-08","list_prices_read_on":"2026-10-09","runs_per_question":1,"what_rule_right_means":"the answer states the decision rule of the node that covers the question, as graded by a model against keys written from the nodes; it is agreement with this product's rule, not an outside standard of correctness","arms":{"without":"the model alone, no skill, no node","free_layer":"the skill installed and told to use it: the free layer and the handles, no paid text","with_node":"the skill plus the paid node text for the question's decision"},"your_own_cost":"multiply tokens_per_answer by your model's list price: input_total counts every input token across the calls one answer took (most of it cache reads on the second and later calls), input_new the uncached part, output the tokens written; the measured cost_per_answer_usd used the prices in models.list_price_usd_per_mtok","will_change":"the comparison test (three runs per question, a second vendor, about sixty runs per arm) replaces these figures; measured_on changes when it does","decision":"risk/decide/hurdle","kind":"screen","kind_label":"screens and thresholds","verdict":{"for_model":null,"model_class":"unknown","verdict":"not_measured","because":"This model was not measured; no figure is given for it. The two measured rows are the only evidence; a model below the frontier class is more likely to behave like the small-model row."},"cost_basis":"model tokens only at list prices; the node's price ($0.05 a purchase) is not included in any cost figure in this record","recommended_path":{"path":"a small model with the node","what":"pin a small model for these questions and buy the node for each: the measured rule-right rate is the highest of any arm, at the lowest cost per rule-right answer in model tokens; the node's price ($0.05 a purchase) is not included","rule_right":{"small_model_with_node":"12 of 12","frontier_model_alone":"1 of 5","frontier_model_with_node":"4 of 5","across_all_kinds":{"small_model_with_node":"15 of 20","frontier_model_alone":"2 of 8","frontier_model_with_node":"5 of 8","note":"small model with the node against frontier with the node: no difference detected (p = 0.65)"}},"cost_per_rule_right_answer_usd":{"small_model_with_node":0.00472,"frontier_model_alone":0.43475,"frontier_model_with_node":0.18081,"across_all_kinds":{"small_model_with_node":0.00644,"frontier_model_alone":0.3352,"frontier_model_with_node":0.2412}},"the_delta":"model tokens only, the node's price ($0.05 a purchase) not included — per rule-right answer on screens and thresholds: $0.0047 for a small model with the node against $0.435 for a frontier model alone (92×) and $0.181 for a frontier model with the node (38×); across all kinds $0.0064 against $0.335 (52×) and $0.241 (37×)","if_you_cannot_choose_the_model":"on a frontier model already: the node's lift is unproven at this sample size (see the verdict); on a small model: use the node; on a model not measured: no figure — the small-model row is the nearest evidence, not a promise","quality":"quality here is rule-right: the answer states this product's rule for the question, graded by a model against keys written from the nodes — a pilot of one run per question, not a customer-satisfaction measure (a blind-preference arm is planned)"},"by_model":{"claude-haiku-5.5":{"class":"small","list_price_usd_per_mtok":{"input":0.1,"output":0.5},"verdict":"use","because":"On screens and thresholds, a small model stated the rule in 12 of 12 answers with the node, 7 of 12 with the free layer alone and 2 of 12 with nothing. An answer with the node costs about 2.0× an unaided one at list prices (3.8× the raw tokens, most of them cache reads), and still costs less per rule-right answer than any other arm measured. These costs are model tokens only; the node's price ($0.05 a purchase) is not included.","this_kind_of_question":{"n":12,"rule_right":{"without":2,"free_layer":7,"with_node":12},"cost_per_answer_usd":{"without":0.00234,"free_layer":0.00449,"with_node":0.00472},"cost_per_rule_right_answer_usd":{"without":0.01404,"free_layer":0.0077,"with_node":0.00472},"tokens_per_answer":{"without":{"input_total":18894,"input_new":7333,"output":1507},"free_layer":{"input_total":87758,"input_new":12791,"output":2368},"with_node":{"input_total":75373,"input_new":14107,"output":2579}},"api_calls_per_answer":{"without":1.17,"free_layer":4.33,"with_node":3.67}},"this_decision_alone":{"n":2,"rule_right":{"without":0,"free_layer":1,"with_node":2},"note":"too few answers to read on their own; the kind row is the evidence"}},"claude-opus-5.5":{"class":"frontier","list_price_usd_per_mtok":{"input":4,"output":20},"verdict":"unproven","because":"On screens and thresholds, a frontier model stated the rule in 4 of 5 answers with the node against 1 of 5 alone — too few answers to call that a lift (across all kinds, 5 of 8 against 2 of 8, p = 0.31), and an answer with the node costs about 1.7× an unaided one at list prices (4.8× the raw tokens, most of them cache reads). If you want a computed verdict, the applied route gives one; otherwise nothing here shows your own answer to be worse. These costs are model tokens only; the node's price ($0.05 a purchase) is not included.","this_kind_of_question":{"n":5,"rule_right":{"without":1,"free_layer":3,"with_node":4},"cost_per_answer_usd":{"without":0.08695,"free_layer":0.15456,"with_node":0.14465},"cost_per_rule_right_answer_usd":{"without":0.43475,"free_layer":0.2576,"with_node":0.18081},"tokens_per_answer":{"without":{"input_total":14974,"input_new":7543,"output":1256},"free_layer":{"input_total":80462,"input_new":12811,"output":1929},"with_node":{"input_total":76535,"input_new":12638,"output":1540}},"api_calls_per_answer":{"without":1,"free_layer":4.2,"with_node":4}},"this_decision_alone":{"n":1,"rule_right":{"without":0,"free_layer":1,"with_node":1},"note":"too few answers to read on their own; the kind row is the evidence"}}},"not_for":["market data, prices or forecasts — the nodes carry none","businesses above about $50M in revenue, or questions outside value, cash flow, risk, growth and market structure","arithmetic over periods, or an order of steps answered from the text alone — the applied route computes them; the text does not","a frontier model already on a screen-or-threshold question — no lift was established at this sample size"],"table_url":"https://business-frameworks.matryoshka-paradigms.workers.dev/fit","ask_for_your_model":"https://business-frameworks.matryoshka-paradigms.workers.dev/fit?decision=risk/decide/hurdle&model=<your model name>"},"access":"Ask narrow, pay per node; ask broad, get a quoted bundle at USD 0.05, stated before you pay."}